One-step thinking is a trap I’ve seen over and over in business, and particularly in politics. Here’s how it goes:
Step 1: Identify a problem
Step 2: Come up with a simple, immediate solution.
Stop there.
One of the most infamous examples from Australian politics was the 10-cent bounty proposal for every cane toad handed in. On the surface, this sounds reasonable: Pay people to remove an invasive species. Problem solved.
Except cane toads breed faster than rabbits on Red Bull. My entrepreneur brain immediately imagined a breeding facility pumping out toads for profit. Australian kids aren’t stupid, and I can guarantee that just about every Australian back yard would be turned into a cane toad farm as entrepreneurial children set up their own cane toad farms.
No one asked: What happens next?
That’s the problem with one-step thinking. An action can feel efficient, but without considering what lies beyond, we often end up creating bigger problems down the track.
What’s this got to do with small business?
Plenty.
When we only think one step ahead, we:
- Slash prices to win customers, and destroy margins.
- Hire quickly to solve a resourcing gap, and disrupt team culture.
- Ignore sustainability because “we’re too small”, and lose future relevance.
True strategy is multi-step thinking. It’s asking:
- “And then what?”
- “What’s the second consequence of this choice?”
- “What ripple effect could this decision have on my brand, team, finances, or supply chain?”
The Arctic helped me think in longer arcs. I travelled to the Arctic as a guest of Polar Quest. It’s a magical place, but here’s why every decision up there can have serious consequences. The weather changes, the ice shifts, wildlife appears or disappears, glaciers calve huge icebergs that can swamp your boat, polar bears can kill. (On every hike there is one guide at the front and one guide at the back of the group. Both have loaded rifles).
You realise first-hand the need to read the signs, plan ahead, and be prepared for the next possible move. Before every hike on land, the guides would go on-shore and scout for wildlife that may endanger us, or that we may disturb. At one site, we had all just unloaded from the Zodiacs (inflatable boats) when a bear was spotted about a kilometre away. Quick change of plan! We all had to reload and head back to the ship. There, plans are not just for now, but for what comes next.
I think of the big companies that failed during COVID. Many were victims of one-step thinking. They hadn’t played out the “what if” scenarios. They hadn’t thought beyond business as usual.
Let’s not make the same mistake.
So what’s the alternative?
Think in trees, not just lines
We can’t see 100 steps ahead, of course. But we can train ourselves to think in trees, not just lines. Each decision branches out. Each path has outcomes.
Start with just two-step thinking. Then three.
“If I take this action, what might happen?”
“And if that happens, what will I do next?”
“If I get all the guests on-shore for a hike and a polar bear appears, what will I do next?”
This is what resilience looks like. Not toughness, but readiness.
That’s what I brought back from the Arctic